Could A Rookie Reliever Be The Key To 2025 Fantasy Baseball Drafts?
Image credit: Porter Hodge (Photo by Matt Dirksen/Chicago Cubs/Getty Images)
Two rookie relief pitchers, Porter Hodge and Ben Joyce, are being drafted inside the top 200 picks at the NFBC this December.
More precisely, Hodge is being taken as the 18th reliever, while Joyce is the 22nd. The market expects them to close games this season.
Given both youngsters are unproven big league commodities, their range of outcomes for 2025 fantasy leagues is wide. Either could be relegated to middle relief this summer or become the next Jhoan Duran.
As saves continue to be one of the most critical fantasy stats to secure on draft day, let’s dive deeper into each young arm to better understand the bets we’re making.
Porter Hodge, RHP, Cubs
The 23-year-old debuted with Chicago in May and pitched to a 2.05 ERA with a strong 19 K-BB% through the end of July. The Cubs then dealt Mark Leiter Jr. at the trade deadline and designated Nector Neris for assignment, clearing the path for Hodge to break out down the stretch.
Hodge earned a save on Aug. 20 and finished with eight of the team’s 10 saves from that point on, effectively operating as the locked-in closer. He finished 2024 with the fourth-best ERA among rookie relievers and tied for the sixth-best WHIP despite an elevated walk rate.
Hodge worked around the walk issue thanks to a .132 batting average against and a .189 BABIP, both of which were top three among all bullpen arms with at least 40 innings. Whether or not this is a repeatable skill for Hodge will likely determine if he can hold onto the closer role in 2025 and beyond.
It helps that Hodge’s 32% strikeout rate was elite. As a rookie, he relied entirely on his fastball (61% usage) and a sweeper (38%). The fastball averaged 95.5 mph last year—substantial velocity but not league-leading. It plays up because its movement profile is similar to a cutter.
Hodge’s sweeper is the star of the show, having led the league in sweeper run value, according to Statcast. Hodge’s 52% whiff rate on the pitch also ranked fourth in MLB. He reportedly wants to work on a splitter entering 2025, which shouldn’t be treated as a given that it will be successful, but it’s a reminder that this is a young pitcher still coming into his own. It’s also worth noting this was Hodge’s first season as a full-time reliever.
Jon Morosi recently reported the Cubs are looking at free agent relievers following the Cody Bellinger trade. This shouldn’t scare drafters off entirely, but notable bullpen arms such as Kirby Yates, Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman and Kenley Jansen, among others, remain available.
Hodge’s grip on ninth inning duties likely comes down to whether the club signs a “capital-C” closer or merely brings in high-leverage depth. As of December, Tyson Miller and Nate Pearson represent the biggest threats to the role. Hodge likely isn’t as good as his surface-level numbers indicated last year, but he’s a worthwhile upside bet until the Cubs make a serious investment in the bullpen.
Ben Joyce, RHP, Angels
RP22 is quite the leap of faith for a pitcher with only four career saves, so let’s remind ourselves of his journey to this point.
Joyce began the 2024 campaign at Triple-A but was recalled to the majors in June. Carlos Estévez earned 20 saves for the Halos before he was sent to Philadelphia at the trade deadline. This cleared a path for Joyce to work save situations, and he earned 80% of the team’s saves before he was sidelined by a shoulder issue for the rest of the year. In total, LA had just seven saves in August and September.
Joyce pitched 34.2 innings with the Angels, registering 33 strikeouts, a 2.08 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. His ERA estimators think he over-performed to varying degrees:
The discrepancy between his ERA and xFIP is likely best explained by his 0.28 HR/9, a top 12 mark among relievers with at least 30 innings pitched (an admittedly low threshold).
Joyce also had a 58% groundball rate that ranked 15th among relief pitchers. Limiting homers and generating an abundance of grounders are great strategies for run prevention. The question is whether Joyce can maintain them to such extreme degrees again.
It’s crucial since Joyce isn’t as much of a strikeout pitcher as one would expect for baseball’s velocity king. Per Statcast, Joyce’s four-seamer averaged 102.1 mph in 2024, over a full mph harder than Mason Miller’s. He threw it 45% of the time last season, but Statcast’s run values didn’t like the pitch nearly as much as his sinker. Interestingly, Stuff+ preferred the four-seamer:
The fastball usage was a steep drop from his 10 IP sample in 2023, and introducing his sinker has succeeded. Perhaps the four-seamer usage could drop even further in favor of more sliders and changeups next year—his two best offerings by whiff rate.
If Joyce can generate more Ks and reach 50-60 innings, his fantasy profile has a huge upside. A breakout shouldn’t be assumed, though, and it remains to be seen how many games the Angels win in 2025—and if Joyce receives the large majority of save chances.
Robert Stephenson is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, and Los Angeles has no viable threats to Joyce in the ninth inning. If that remains true as Opening Day approaches, then his ceiling will be one to bet on. Should the Angels bring in reasonable competition, then Joyce’s pinkish flags begin looking a little more red.
