BA Dream Draft: Ranking Teams According To Tool Grades & Advanced Data

To review, a dozen BA staffers participated in a 30-round draft made up of entirely prospects. Each team was required to draft a minimum of nine pitchers, but outside of that, there were no roster restrictions. You can find the complete round-by-round draft results via Fantrax here.

In today’s breakdown, we’ll dig into the Dream Draft data to see how each team stacks up in a variety of key metrics such as scouting tool grades, 90th percentile exit velocity, fastball velocity and lots more.

Obviously, in a draft such as this, there’s a good chunk of players selected who have yet to debut professionally. Numerous 2025 international signees were drafted, as well as 2024 high school prospects who have yet to step foot on a field in an affiliated game.

To address this, I not only looked at both minor league data and college data for 2024 college draftees yet to debut, but also evaluated teams based on tool grades from our most recent Top 30s. There were, however, a handful of players drafted that did not appear on a team’s top 30 this offseason. These players were Garrett Martin (Matt Pajak), Nate Knowles (Peter Flaherty), Ty Johnson (Josh Norris), Rafe Schlesinger (Jacob Rudner) and Luis Gastelum (Jacob Rudner). For both Knowles and Schlesinger, their 2024 Draft 500 tool grades were applied. 

This balance of grades and data gives us an idea of current tools and production, as well as each team’s long-term future value projection based on our expert rankers. The goal was to give a holistic view of how each team drafted and what types of traits they valued most.

Now, let’s dig into the numbers and consider some key takeaways.

Positional Groups By Tool Grades

Team	Avg. Hit Grade	Avg. Power Grade	Avg. Run Grade	Avg. Glove Grade	Avg. Arm Grade
Carlos Collazo	53.68	48.95	51.84	51.84	51.32
Daniel Malone	50.26	54.21	53.42	51.84	54.74
Dylan White	52.50	49.44	49.17	49.44	52.22
Geoff Pontes	49.12	56.76	52.94	49.41	57.35
Jacob Rudner	48.95	60.00	48.42	47.37	57.11
Jesús Cano	51.19	53.10	45.71	48.57	51.43
J.J. Cooper	51.25	48.25	55.50	53.75	54.50
Josh Norris	50.26	52.11	52.11	52.63	55.00
Matt Eddy	49.25	52.00	53.25	53.75	56.25
Matt Pajak	50.28	55.28	53.33	51.11	54.44
Mark Chiarelli	54.25	52.25	52.50	52.00	54.25
Peter Flaherty	54.41	44.41	55.88	52.94	51.18
Grand Total	51.28	52.25	51.94	51.23	54.14

• Peter Flaherty, Mark Chiarelli and Carlos Collazo drafted the strongest teams based on hit tool grades, with an above-average grade on each of their team’s projected hit tools. We’ll see later how this was reflected in the data of each team. Of this group, they also had two of the three lowest power tool grades, with Peter’s team ranking as the least powerful with an average power score of under 45. Carlos was just under an average power grade with an average power tool grade of 48.95. 
• Among power grades, Jacob Rudner’s team stands alone as the undisputed champion. He didn’t draft a single hitter with a power grade below 55 among his 20 hitters selected. Sliding in at No. 2 on the power tool rankings was Geoff Pontes with an average grade of 56.76, just edging out Matt Pajak at 55.29 in third. Daniel Malone was not far behind with an average power grade of 54.21. 
• There were just three teams with run grades below 50 in the draft: Jesús Cano, Dylan White and Jacob Rudner. The fastest team belonged to Peter Flaherty, who connected with his Cotuit roots and drafted a team with enough speed to keep former Ketts manager Mike Roberts happy. J.J. Cooper’s team wasn’t far behind with an average speed grade just a few percentage points behind. Overall, each team had average to above-average speed. 
• The best defensive teams belonged to J.J. Cooper, Matt Eddy and Peter Flaherty. That result tracks fairly closely with speed grades, which isn’t a shock. 
• The only teams below a 50 fielding grade were Jesús Cano, Jacob Rudner, Geoff Pontes and Dylan White. All four seemed to prioritize power and hitting ability over defensive value.
• Arm grades tracked pretty closely with average power tool grades with Geoff Pontes and Jacob Rudner boasting average arm grade scores of 57 or higher to sit between above-average and plus arm strength overall.

Pitching Groups by Tool Grades 

Team	Avg. FB Grade	Avg. SL Grade	Avg. CB Grade	Avg. CH Grade	Avg. SP Grade	Avg. CTL Grade
Carlos Collazo	61.82	55.56	52.5	52.22	60	53.64
Daniel Malone	58.5	56.11	49.17	55.5	55	52
Dylan White	54.09	53	46.88	45.56	67.5	55
Geoff Pontes	57.31	55.38	54.17	47.73	45	51.92
Jacob Rudner	58.33	58.75	50	51.11	N/A	48.89
Jesús Cano	56.11	53.33	53	51.67	45	53.33
J.J. Cooper	58	60	54.17	47.5	50	48
Josh Norris	63	59.44	52	56.11	N/A	50
Matt Eddy	60.5	57.22	54.17	46	N/A	50
Matt Pajak	61.67	57.5	50	50.42	N/A	47.08
Mark Chiarelli	58	54.38	51.25	50.56	55	51.5
Peter Flaherty	57.92	53.64	51.67	49.5	55	51.82
Grand Total	58.78	56.05	51.52	50.3	54	51.11

• Josh Norris was the king of fastball quality, as his average FB grade of 63 is outstanding. His team boasts five pitchers with 70-grade fastballs in Andrew Painter, Chase Burns, Emiliano Teodo, Eriq Swan and Edgardo Henriquez. Other fastball standouts included Carlos Collazo, Matt Pajak and Matt Eddy. 
• J.J. Cooper takes the crown for breaking balls, as his average slider grade was a robust 60. Across the board, all teams had above-average sliders with the average grade sitting at 56.05. Josh Norris had a well-balanced draft for pitchers, as his tool grades for fastball, slider and changeup rated above-average to plus.
• The best control of any pitching staff belonged to Dylan White, who, as the master of the RoboScout, showed his penchant for strike-throwers with the highest average grade of 55. He was followed by Carlos Collazo and Jesús Cano. All three project to carry a solid group of starters due to their ability to get the ball consistently into the zone. 

Positional Groups By Advanced Data

Team	Avg. EV90%	Avg. IZ Miss%	Avg. Chase%	Avg. xwOBAcon
Carlos Collazo	102.1	15.51%	21.76%	0.309
Daniel Malone	103.4	20.62%	27.06%	0.359
Dylan White	103.2	16.50%	24.47%	0.359
Geoff Pontes	105.4	20.31%	26.57%	0.369
Jacob Rudner	103.5	21.33%	26.49%	0.363
Jesús Cano	104.1	18.30%	24.94%	0.349
J.J. Cooper	103.5	19.67%	24.06%	0.354
Josh Norris	102.5	19.53%	25.04%	0.323
Matt Eddy	101.9	18.45%	26.44%	0.345
Matt Pajak	104.2	16.26%	22.95%	0.366
Mark Chiarelli	102.8	15.51%	23.38%	0.337
Peter Flaherty	102.1	15.40%	23.96%	0.333
Grand Total	103.2	18.13%	24.75%	0.347

• Based on underlying in-zone whiff rate and chase rate data, our tool grades did a good job of capturing the top hit tool teams. The top three teams track almost one for one with in-zone miss rate and chase rate. Matt Pajak is the only outlier, as his hit tool quality might have been underrated slightly by the tool grades. The top four teams based on hit tools grades rank within the top five of in-zone miss rates and chase rates. 
• There are a few different ways to measure power, whether it be average 90th percentile exit velocity or xwOBAcon. Jacob Rudner, who ranked highest in average power grade, ranked third in xwOBAcon and tied for fourth in average 90th percentile EV. Geoff Pontes, who ranked second in power tool grade, was the clear winner when it came to average 90th percentile EV and xwOBAcon. Matt Pajak, who had the third-highest power grade, ranked second in team xwOBAcon and second in average 90th percentile EV. 
• While Peter Flaherty had the lowest average power score by far, his team outperformed a pair of higher-rated power teams in Carlos Collazo and Josh Norris when it came to xwOBAcon. Average 90th percentile EV, however, had Peter and Carlos tied for 12th in that metric, lining up perfectly with tool grades. While J.J. Cooper’s power was heavily underrated, his team’s average tool grades were likely weighed down by a few hitters with low-end power production (Enrique Bradfield, Emilien Pitre and Payton Eeles).  

Pitching Groups By Advanced Data

Team	Avg. FB Velo	Avg. IVB	Avg. HB	Avg. FB Whiff%	Avg. VAA	Avg. EXT	Avg. K/BB%
Carlos Collazo	94.64	17	9.4	27.99%	-4.68	6.364	21.16%
Daniel Malone	93.64	15.9	10.7	21.76%	-4.85	6.147	20.44%
Dylan White	94.18	15.8	8.1	23.91%	-4.85	6.135	23.46%
Geoff Pontes	94.34	16.4	9.5	25.63%	-4.83	6.472	18.82%
Jacob Rudner	94.29	16.4	9.8	27.03%	-4.77	6.343	29.53%
Jesús Cano	93.1	14.5	11.3	23.51%	-4.87	6.166	18.52%
J.J. Cooper	94.69	15	9.6	26.23%	-4.81	6.126	20.07%
Josh Norris	95.4	15.6	8.1	28.71%	-5.33	6.235	19.12%
Matt Eddy	94.89	15.9	9.6	27.91%	-4.55	6.504	19.84%
Matt Pajak	95.04	16.5	8.5	28.72%	-4.79	6.384	21.14%
Mark Chiarelli	94.06	15.7	8.3	26.99%	-4.6	6.493	17.43%
Peter Flaherty	93.72	16.2	8.7	24.81%	-4.76	6.195	20.52%
Grand Total	94.35	15.9	9.2	26.17%	-4.82	6.296	20.55%

• It should come as no surprise that the highest-rated team per average fastball grade also has the highest average team fastball velocity, which belongs to Josh Norris. His average fastball velocity of 95.4 mph just edges out Matt Pajak at 95.04, Matt Eddy at 94.89, J.J. Cooper at 94.69, Carlos Collazo at 94.64 and Geoff Pontes at 94.34. 
• While Josh Norris has substantial fastball quality based on grade, his fastball traits didn’t line up as cleanly. Carlos Collazo had the best combination of average induced vertical break and average fastball velocity, as well as the third-flattest vertical approach angle in the draft. This tracks fairly well with his average fastball grade of 61.82, which ranked second-highest.
• Both Matt Eddy and Mark Chiarelli targeted good fastball traits, as they rank No. 1 and No. 2 in extension and flat VAA, respectively. Those two traits are clearly connected, and the performance of those teams reflected that based on the data averages. 
• The king of K/BB% was Jacob Rudner, as he demolished the competition. That is a good sign for future production and is often one of the stickiest metrics when it comes to projecting future MLB success for pitchers.
• Not surprisingly, Josh Norris and Matt Pajak ranked as the top two teams per fastball whiffs. They also ranked first and third for fastball grades, and their traits and performance back up those rankings. Carlos Collazo, who drafted the second-best fastball staff per our tool grades, ranks third in average fastball whiff.