Chase Burns Set To Join Growing List Of Starting Pitchers Who Throw 100 MPH
Image credit: Chase Burns (Photo by Bill Mitchell)
On Tuesday, Chase Burns is slated to make his MLB debut for the Reds.
Burns currently ranks No. 8 on the Baseball America Top 100 Prospects rankings. He will become the sixth starting pitcher in the Top 100 to debut this season.
And most likely, soon after he throws his first pitch, Burns will become the fourth rookie starter this season to throw 100 mph in a big league game, joining Jacob Misiorowski, Chase Dollander and Roki Sasaki.
Burns has thrown six 100+ mph pitches in two Triple-A starts. Add in the adrenaline of an MLB debut, and it will be surprising if he doesn’t crack the century mark at least once on Tuesday.
When he does so, it will mark yet another step in an eye-opening stat. It isn’t normal to have this many rookies arrive throwing at velocity levels that, until not that long ago, were only the domain of relievers.
As recently as 2017, there were only six starting pitchers who threw a 100 mph fastball in a season. With the impending arrivals of Bubba Chandler, Andrew Painter and possibly Brandon Sproat later this season, it’s not inconceivable that there will be six or seven rookie starters who touch 100 this year. Those three (and Burns) have all thrown 100 mph in Triple-A this year.
Their arrival will further boost the year of the 100 mph starting pitcher. There have already been 17 MLB starters who have touched triple digits this season. That’s tied for the second most in the Statcast/PitchFX eras (2008-present), two behind 2024’s 19.
There already have been more 100+ mph pitches thrown by starters than there were in any season from 2008-2015, and it’s possible that this year will top last year’s total of 264 before the end of June.
Now, I am guessing that many will wonder if this is a good thing. After all, as a pitcher throws harder, he increases the stress on the ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow. If all these young pitchers are going to be stars briefly before blowing out their arm and never returning, then no, it wouldn’t be good for them or baseball.
But how realistic is that? We can look at it two ways.
There are 42 starting pitchers who touched 100 mph in their rookie MLB season since Statcast/PitchFX began pitch tracking in 2008. This list does not include openers who pitched just one or two innings and were otherwise relievers.
| Player | Rookie Year | Player | Rookie Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chamberlain, Joba | 2008 | Cease, Dylan | 2019 |
| Parnell, Bobby | 2009 | May, Dustin | 2020 |
| Samardzija, Jeff | 2009 | Sánchez, Sixto | 2020 |
| Strasburg, Stephen | 2010 | Hernández, Carlos | 2021 |
| De La Rosa, Rubby | 2011 | McClanahan, Shane | 2021 |
| Pineda, Michael | 2011 | Ashcraft, Graham | 2022 |
| Cole, Gerrit | 2013 | Greene, Hunter | 2022 |
| Peralta, Wily | 2013 | Ortiz, Luis L. | 2022 |
| Salazar, Danny | 2013 | Strider, Spencer | 2022 |
| Gausman, Kevin | 2014 | Fujinami, Shintaro | 2023 |
| Martinez, Carlos | 2014 | Medina, Luis | 2023 |
| Ventura, Yordano | 2014 | Miller, Bobby | 2023 |
| Foltynewicz, Mike | 2015 | Miller, Mason | 2023 |
| Montas, Frankie | 2015 | Pérez, Eury | 2023 |
| Syndergaard, Noah | 2015 | Rodriguez, Grayson | 2023 |
| Reyes, Alex | 2016 | Boyle, Joe | 2024 |
| Castillo, Luis | 2017 | Gil, Luis | 2024 |
| Gohara, Luiz | 2017 | Jones, Jared | 2024 |
| James, Josh | 2018 | Skenes, Paul | 2024 |
| Ohtani, Shohei | 2018 |
Of those 42 pitchers, 33% had Tommy John surgery after their debut (thanks to Jon Rogele’s invaluable Tommy John database). If you include Tommy John surgeries before a pitcher reached the majors, the percentage jumps to 42%. Both of those numbers are in the range of 38.8% of MLB pitchers (in 2024) who have had Tommy John surgery at some point in their career.
So the risk is there, but it’s somewhat in line with the overall Tommy John risk rate for MLB pitchers. And if you look at the list of 100 mph starting pitchers in the Statcast era (2008-present) who threw 20+ 100 mph pitches, something else stands out.
It’s not a list of what could have beens—it’s a list with a lot of aces.
Now, the injury rate for the 20+ 100 mph pitch group is higher, as 58.6% (17 of 29) on the list have had Tommy John surgery. The actual number of surgeries is 20, as Shohei Ohtani, Spencer Strider, Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob deGrom each had two.
But that list of 29 pitchers also boasts some of the best pitchers of the 21st century. Of the eight active pitchers who have thrown 1,900 or more career innings, two (Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole) rank in the top 10 in 100+ mph pitches from a starter. If you expand out to the top 25 in active innings (1,340+ innings), that adds Eovaldi and deGrom.
Of the top 20 pitchers in innings pitched in the Statcast era, seven have touched 100 mph at some point during that time frame, including all three at the top of the leaderboard (Verlander, Zack Greinke and Max Scherzer).
Looked at a different way, the 29 starters who have thrown 20+ 100 mph pitches in the majors includes five Cy Young winners who combined for eight Cy Youngs (deGrom, Verlander, Cole, Sandy Alcantara and Tarik Skubal). There are another 10 of those 29 who had a year or more where they received Cy Young votes (Hunter Greene, Noah Syndergaard, Eovaldi, Carlos Martinez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Ohtani, Spencer Strider, Luis Severino, Stephen Strasburg and Shane McClanahan).
Between the 29 players, there have been 92 2+ bWAR seasons. Of them, 19 have had a 3+ bWAR season, and 13 have 10+ career bWAR.
| Player | 100+ MPH Pitches | Peak bWAR | CAREER WAR | MAX IP | 2+ WAR SEASONS | CY YoUNGS | ROY | CY YOUNG VOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greene, Hunter | 606 | 6.2 | 11.1 | 150 | 3 | 1 year | ||
| deGrom, Jacob | 318 | 9.4 | 44.7 | 217 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 years |
| Syndergaard, Noah | 245 | 5 | 15.7 | 198 | 4 | 1 year | ||
| Ventura, Yordano | 226 | 3.4 | 7.7 | 186 | 3 | |||
| Verlander, Justin | 205 | 8.6 | 81 | 251 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 11 years |
| Eovaldi, Nathan | 163 | 4.3 | 23.3 | 200 | 6 | 1 year | ||
| Miller, Bobby | 140 | 2 | -0.3 | 124 | 1 | |||
| Alcantara, Sandy | 131 | 8 | 19.5 | 229 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cole, Gerrit | 127 | 7.4 | 42.6 | 212 | 8 | 1 | 7 years | |
| Hicks, Jordan | 113 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 110 | 0 | |||
| Skenes, Paul | 101 | 5.9 | 9.9 | 133 | 2 | 1 | 1 year | |
| Martinez, Carlos | 99 | 5.7 | 13 | 205 | 4 | |||
| Jiménez, Ubaldo | 91 | 7.5 | 21 | 222 | 5 | 1 year | ||
| Ohtani, Shohei | 76 | 6.2 | 15 | 166 | 3 | 1 year | ||
| Strider, Spencer | 51 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 187 | 2 | 1 year | ||
| Ashcraft, Graham | 49 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 146 | 1 | |||
| Paxton, James | 43 | 3.6 | 13.9 | 160 | 3 | |||
| Severino, Luis | 43 | 5.2 | 15 | 193 | 3 | 2 years | ||
| Soriano, José | 43 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 113 | 0 | |||
| Misiorowski, Jacob | 43 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 11 | 0 | |||
| Miller, Mason | 38 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 65 | 0 | |||
| Jones, Jared | 30 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 122 | 0 | |||
| Strasburg, Stephen | 29 | 6.3 | 31 | 215 | 8 | 3 years | ||
| McClanahan, Shane | 25 | 4.2 | 8.8 | 166 | 2 | 1 year | ||
| Cashner, Andrew | 25 | 4.6 | 10.1 | 185 | 4 | |||
| Hernández, Carlos | 25 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 86 | 0 | |||
| Skubal, Tarik | 23 | 6.4 | 15.2 | 192 | 3 | 1 | 1 year | |
| Rodriguez, Grayson | 22 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 122 | 0 |
Yes, there are cautionary tales. Syndergaard looked like a long-term ace when he arrived in 2015, and he went 14-9, 2.60 to earn Cy Young votes in 2016 in his age 23 season. He later had Tommy John surgery in 2020. While he had a solid bounce-back season in 2022, that was his last year as a productive starter. The hope is that McClanahan can return to his pre-injury form, but he looks likely to be sidelined for more than two years since his August 2023 elbow injury.
Part of this is understandably how human nature works. It’s easy to look at deGrom as an example of the perils of throwing too hard for one’s own good. But to view it that way ignores the stretch from 2014-2021 when he was arguably the best pitcher in baseball and was durable. He was Rookie of the Year, a two-time Cy Young winner and a four-time All-Star. From 2015-2020, he had a six-season stretch where he missed a total of 20 days to injury (two 10-day IL stints) over six seasons.
And it also ignores the fact that deGrom has managed to return to fine form this season as a 37-year-old who can still reach back for 98-100 mph when he needs it.
We don’t know what Burns’ future will be. But with his stuff, he has a chance to be special, from his first MLB game on the mound.
