Could This One 2025 Stat Hurt Jace LaViolette’s MLB Draft Status?

Baseball America researched the batting averages in the draft year of every Division I hitter selected in the first round since BA was founded in 1981. Of those 316 D-I first-round hitters, only 16 hit under .300 in their draft year. That includes two hitters from the covid-cancelled 2020 season, which means only 14 hitters did so in a full season.

Of those 16, only three had a lower batting average than LaViolette. And of the 14 who hit under .300, only two (Ken Felder, 1992 and Bill Spiers, 1987) were selected in the top 15 picks. In comparison, over that same time frame, there have been 17 first-round picks who hit over .440 in their draft season.

The average slash line of college hitters taken in first round since 2005 (the first year for which we could gather on-base and slugging percentages for all hitters) is .358/.467/.645. For top 15 picks, it’s .364/.475/.668. The average batting average for first-round D-I college hitters picked since 1981 is .366.

In those terms, LaViolette’s batting average ranks in the sixth percentile of first-round college hitters in the study. His on-base percentage ranks in the 20th percentile, and his slugging ranks in the 25th percentile.

LaViolette is currently a center fielder, but he’s expected by many scouts to eventually end up in a corner outfield spot, where his bat will have to carry him. The vast majority of hitters picked with well-below-average batting averages are glove-first catchers and extremely athletic middle infielders and center fielders. Of the 16, four were catchers, two were outfielders who also played football and six were shortstops.

We can also get a profile of the average first-round college hitter by position. For this, the full slash line is for draftees from 2004 to present, while the batting average is for players from 1981 to present.

Pos.	AVG	OBP	SLG
1B	.380	.503	.726
2B	.384	.484	.718
3B	.372	.477	.654
C	.356	.462	.631
OF	.363	.468	.650
SS	.363	.445	.594

Batting Average Is Actually Useful

Batting average is a very basic metric, so it’s worth asking just how valuable it is as a stat for college hitters. Past history shows that a low batting average in a player’s draft year appears to be a significant risk factor for future big league success.

Of the 16 sub-.300 hitters drafted in the first round, two are too early in his career to be evaluated (Malcom Moore and Enrique Bradfield).

Of the other 14, five failed to reach the majors. Two (Jeromy Burnitz and Bill Spiers) had 10+ bWAR careers. Patrick Bailey is the Giants’ current starting catcher, and Steve Lyons had a long career as a utility man. The other five have had sub-0.0 bWAR careers.

Across all 276 college hitters drafted in the first round between 1981 and 2021, only 40 (14.5%) failed to reach the majors. Among the sub-.300 hitters, it’s a 35.7% miss rate (5 of 14). Among hitters who hit .400, there is a 10.7% miss rate (7 of 65).

Among the 236 who reached the majors, 55 (23.3%) produced below-zero bWAR. Among the .400+ hitters, only 9.2% (6 of 58) produced negative bWAR. Among the sub-.300 hitters, 55.6% (5 of 9) produced negative bWAR.

So, overall, 34.4% (95 of 276) of college hitters drafted in the first round from 1981 to 2021 either failed to reach the majors or produced negative WAR in the majors. Among .400+ hitters, that rate drops to 20% (13 of 65).

Among sub-.300 hitters, where LaViolette finished up, that rate climbs to 71.4% (10 of 14).

Even if we try to draw it more broadly, similar trends emerge. The 158 hitters who hit at or above the median batting average of .358 produced on average 13.4 bWAR. The 116 hitters who hit below the median batting average produced on average 8.3 bWAR.

Here’s a the full list of first round college hitters who hit under .300 in their draft year (1981-2024):

Sub-.300 Hitting First Round Picks

Draft	Pick #	Team	Player	Pos	AVG.	Notes
2018	9	Athletics	Kyler Murray	OF	.296	Signed with A’s but then switched to football without ever playing a game.
2018	10	Pirates	Travis Swaggerty	OF	.296	Has reached majors for five games, but has settled in as a MiLB veteran.
1990	17	Mets	Jeromy Burnitz	OF	.295	Became a very productive slugger, hitting 315 home runs over 14-year MLB career.
*2020	27	Twins	Aaron Sabato	1B	.292	Still in minors, but career .213 hitter was unprotected and unpicked in Rule 5 draft
1983	8	Astros	Robbie Wine	C	.292	Glove-first catcher hit .216 in minors, but did reach majors briefly
2019	29	Athletics	Logan Davidson	SS	.291	Just made his MLB debut. Is a .259/.350/.404 MiLB hitter.
2015	20	Athletics	Richie Martin	SS	.291	Was No. 1 pick in 2019 Rule 5 draft after being left unprotected by A’s.
1987	13	Brewers	Bill Spiers	SS	.290	Very productive long-time infielder played in 1,252 MLB games, hitting .271/.341/.370.
2011	30	Twins	Levi Michael	SS	.289	Played eight years in minors before retiring in 2019.
*2020	13	Giants	Patrick Bailey	C	.288	Excellent defensive catcher is Giants’ starter. Glove makes up for career .225 batting average.
2012	24	Red Sox	Deven Marrero	SS	.284	Defense carried him to 178-game MLB career. Hit .191/.246/.279 in majors.
2023	17	Orioles	Enrique Bradfield	OF	.279	Speedy center fielder has reached Double-A. Is a .276/.379/.366 hitter so far.
1992	12	Brewers	Ken Felder	OF	.268	Football/baseball player at Florida State hit .217 in pro debut, .182 following year, but did reach Triple-A.
1981	26	Padres via Yankees	Frank Castro	C	.258	Reached Double-A in six-year MiLB career.
2024	30	Rangers	Malcolm Moore	C	.255	Recent first-rounder has hit .223/.345/.397 so far in very brief (34-game) pro career.
1981	19	Red Sox	Steve Lyons	SS	.250	Had nine-year MLB career as utilityman. Hit .252/.301/.340 overall.

* Season shortened by coronavirus pandemic