Jacob Melton, Brady House Headline 10 Statcast Standouts (June 2)
Image credit: Jacob Melton (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
Every Monday morning, we’ll highlight 10 players who stood out to us based on their underlying Statcast metrics. Data will usually be through Saturday of that week, but may include some data from Sunday games. These are not full scouting reports, but often serve as good early indicators of prospects who might be ready to break out or are demonstrating MLB-ready skills.
Last week, we asked if Jac Caglianone is the lefthanded Giancarlo Stanton before he was called up, and highlighted Cole Young’s excellent data just before his callup. We also did a separate deep dive on Roman Anthony. This week we’ll discuss:
- This called-up Astros prospect is breaking all the player dev rules
- “The House That Brady Rebuilt”
- A pair of exciting catching prospects in the low minors
- Jac Caglianone has plus-plus swing decisions?
- Ronny Mauricio is still lifting the ball
- The Colorado Max Muncy
- Conflicting data for an Angels first-rounder
- Alan Roden finding his groove at Triple-A
- A breakout Yankees prospect in Single-A
10 Statcast Standouts
Jacob Melton, OF, Astros
Our two headliners this week have both made incredible transformations year over year. Let’s begin by showing you what Melton’s data looked like last season:
You’re looking at a 2024 profile which can best be described as average-ish tools across the board, with some potential flashed in the 90th percentile and maximum exit velocities, but without the optimized launch angles to capitalize on them.
What Melton has done this season to earn his promotion is nothing short of extraordinary:
We often talk about tradeoffs with prospects. Swing harder, but make less contact. Try to get the ball in the air more, but whiff more against breaking balls. Melton has done the impossible—he’s improved his exit velocities across the board by about four mph, he’s making significantly more contact both in the zone and overall and, most shockingly, he’s raised his average launch angle by over 10 degrees.
This is built on a massive change in approach. Melton has reduced his swing rate from about 50% (where it sat since High-A) to about 42% this year. This has led to a massive drop in his chase rate, which is now plus-plus.
This might just be the most incredible transformation I’ve ever seen. Melton went from a fringe-average hitter to an absolute metric monster in the span of one offseason. Though he’s had just 59 at-bats in 2025, this could be a very real change. If it is, it strongly suggests whatever prospect grades Melton had during the preseason might be obsolete and that his future projection could need to be revised substantially.
Brady House, 3B/SS, Nationals
House finally reached Triple-A last season and struggled mightily. While he managed a respectable .250 batting average, his three percent walk rate, 28.8% strikeout rate and .655 OPS all pointed to a prospect who wasn’t ready for the level. He subsequently dropped off the Top 100 Prospects list after being a mainstay for three years.
House’s struggles went deeper than just the surface-level results. It appeared he was optimizing for contact at the expense of his power swing:
The 2024 version of House was not a prospect I would have been particularly excited to write about. We see clearly fringe power amd decent zone contact, but that’s about the only positives we could have taken away from his metrics. The lack of power was notable and in sharp contrast to his scouting profile going back to his high school days.
Fast forward to this season, and we have a player that is true to his prospect pedigree:
When a player’s data is so poor in a large enough sample, as it was for House in 2024, it becomes very easy to write them off. This is why it’s really important to look at a player’s track record over as long a period as possible. House’s re-emergence as a power hitter is a great example of the risks that come with reading too much into a one or two month blip.
What we’re looking at now is a player with an excellent combination of zone contact vs. the fastball, as well as excellent chase rates against breaking balls and offspeed pitches. This will help him potentially overperform his otherwise subpar zone contact and chase rates.
A player’s 90th percentile exit velocity is generally considered one of the “stickier” power metrics year over year, indicating that House’s other power metrics might be understated. It suggests he truly does have 70-grade raw power, though it probably all combines to a 55 to 60 game power grade.
House is looking like the prospect that he was projected to be and has made huge strides since last season.
Ronny Mauricio, 2B/3B, Mets
Last week, we wrote about how Mauricio is suddenly hitting the ball in the air. I usually try to avoid writing about players in consecutive weeks, however, there are a couple of player development aspects that are generally considered less malleable then others.
Specifically, it’s exceedingly rare for a player with poor launch angles to suddenly become an elevate-and-celebrate type of player. Similarly, prospects who show poor chase rates rarely become patient, selective hitters. We’ve already discussed Melton breaking both of those rules, and in the early going, Mauricio is strongly suggesting he might just be a launch angle monster, as well:
Those top line metrics for Mauricio are elite. If you can hit the ball that hard with those launch angles, we’re talking easy 30-home run power, if not more. He’s increased his average launch angle by over 13 degrees. I cannot stress this point enough: Mauricio’s raw power, matched with 17 to 19 degree average launch angles (rather than the six to eight he was showing previousl) raises his power ceiling considerably.
I’m watching those launch angles closely, and if that’s a real change, it speaks volumes to both Mauricio’s dedication and perseverance, as well as the Mets’ player development team.
Jac Caglianone, 1B/OF, Royals
The other non-malleable aspect of prospecting we discussed was chase rate. The knock on Caglianone was that he chased too much, and that his approach would make it difficult for him to handle upper-level pitching. Not only is Caglianone demolishing upper-level pitching, but through Saturday, take a peek at his chase rate:
That’s a chase rate that’s only 3.2% above the major league average, through a decent sample of 154 pitches. Given his incredibly aggressive 81.8% zone swing rate, there’s a strong case to be made that Caglianone’s swing decisions are plus-plus, perhaps even elite, at least in the early going.
Caglianone has the upside to be a top five bat in all of baseball, and I think he gets there in the next couple of years, if not sooner. That may sound like a hot take, and perhaps it is, but his data is incredible. We often see how focusing on hitting only unlocks two-way players’ games. Perhaps becoming just a hitter has helped take Caglianone’s game to the next level.
It’s no surprise that he was just called up:
Axiel Plaz, C, Pirates
Plaz has been a regular in this series, as his plus-plus raw power stands out. He has shown real, incremental growth in a couple of aspects of his game compared to last season:
- Zone Contact up from 78.9% to 81.6%
- 90th percentile Exit Velocity from 105.7 mph to 108.2 mph
However, he’s also increased his swing rate substantially, leading to a big increase in chase, and he’s lost about 10 degrees of average launch angle. It’s hard to say which version has a better chance to succeed in the majors, but it does appear to be an intentional swing and approach change. He’s performing much better overall this year, so there is reason to believe this works better for Plaz overall.
Alfredo Duno, C, Reds
Not all FSL games have public Statcast data, so keep in mind that Duno’s data are not complete. That said, Duno’s 51.9% zone contact on four-seamers is a major red flag, as is his 75.5% overall zone contact, which is down from last year’s 77.7%. Last year, he was averaging a highly-optimized 18-19 degree average launch angle, compared to this year’s 9.9 degrees. If that’s an intentional change in order to make more contact, that hasn’t appeared to work.
What makes Duno interesting is the already present elite decision making, as well as plus raw power. He’ll need to make major strides in his bat-to-ball, but there is a foundation here for a massive breakout.
Ryan Ritter, SS, Rockies
Ritter has been one of the hottest hitters in Triple-A with a simple formula: Make excellent swing decisions and hit the ball in the air as much as possible. That’s the path to maximizing productivity with average raw power and fringy contact skills. He’s not quite on Max Muncy’s level, but that’s the model he’s following.
Christian Moore, 2B, Angels
When I pulled up Moore’s Statcast card, I was expecting a lot more gold, especially in the power department, so I was rather surprised to see these numbers. He’s not technically a “Statcast Standout”, however he’s showing a knack for barreling the ball, both in and out of the zone, and is showing elite chase rates against all non-fastballs. I wanted to document where Moore was at, early on, as I think the numbers will improve as he gets more reps.
Alan Roden, OF, Blue Jays
Roden struggled mightily in his first taste of the majors, but is absolutely on fire since being sent down—with the Statcast data to back it up. He’s hitting the ball hard, with a plus 105.3 mph 90th percentile exit velocity, and making elite levels of contact, both in zone and out of zone, while limiting his chase. His power will play down somewhat due to his sub-par hard-hit launch angles, but Roden has the makings of a consistent, high-average hitter. Don’t write him off just yet.
Dillon Lewis, OF, Yankees
It has become my tradition that I leave a special name of interest for the last player to be featured each week. Today, the player that has really caught my eye is Lewis, who is showing plus-plus game power with plus-plus swing decisions. For a player who was drafted in the 13th round, this is an incredible find for the Yankees and a credit to their scouting and player development organizations.
There are many who will dismiss a prospect like Lewis, since he’s somewhat old for Single-A and he already has a poor zone contact rate. These are legitimate concerns and are large risk factors in the profile. However, he’s showing the ability to hit the ball really hard, he gets the ball in the air and he has a good approach. That can carry a player a long way. For a late-round pick, that’s an absolute steal.
