Jac Caglianone, Ronny Mauricio Headline 10 Statcast Standouts (May 26)
Image credit: Jac Caglianone (Photo by Bill Mitchell)
Every Monday morning, we’ll highlight 10 players who stood out to us based on their underlying Statcast metrics. Data will usually be through Saturday of that week, but may include some data from Sunday games. These are not full scouting reports, but often serve as good early indicators of prospects who might be ready to break out or are demonstrating MLB-ready skills.
Last week, we showed you what makes Samuel Basallo special and compared the Statcast data between Konnor Griffin and Bryce Rainer. This week we’ll discuss:
- Is Jac Caglianone the lefthanded Giancarlo Stanton?
- A couple forgotten and massively underrated prospects
- Colson Montgomery’s epic resurgence
- A Not 100 prospect gets the call
- A classic mash/whiff profile
- What Cole Young needs to improve
- Another underrated Cubs prospect
- Why Kyle Teel is better than his Statcast metrics
- Joel Peguero throws some serious gas
10 Statcast Standouts
Jac Caglianone, 1B/OF, Royals
Caglianone is off to a scorching start in Triple-A, and his raw power is as good as advertised:
It’s only a matter of time before his maximum exit velocity hits 118 mph or higher. In the early going, the 90th percentile exit velocity of 111.5 mph is more representative of what he’s capable of. We have only a 70-pitch sample size through Saturday, but the encouraging thing for Caglianone is the positive overall swing decisions, as measured by Zone Swing minus Chase Swing. In fact, contrary to his reputation, his zone-chase rate is borderline elite.
Watching this clip, it gave me major Giancarlo Stanton vibes:
Looking at his data, body type and swing, it wouldn’t surprise me if he ends up looking a lot like a lefthanded version of Stanton.
Ronny Mauricio, 2B/3B, Mets
We left Mauricio off of our initial Top 100 Prospects list, in part due to concerns about how he’ll recover from knee surgery. There might have also been some prospect fatigue, as Mauricio has been a Top 30 prospect for the Mets since 2018:
Let’s begin with what Mauricio looked like before his knee injury back in 2023 at Triple-A:
Mauricio is a switch-hitter, so we’ll begin with where he gets the bulk of his plate appearances—as a lefty. There are two key traits that jump off the page: his mammoth raw power, which is at least a 70, and his 94.5% zone contact rate against four-seam fastballs. The players with a zone-contact of 90% or higher and a 90th percentile EV of 107 mph or higher are Yandy Diaz, Tyler Soderstrom, Yordan Alvarez and Ben Rice. Mauricio is able to do that while also being athletic enough to play a premium defensive position.
I want to stress this point, as it’s why I’m such a big believer in Mauricio. The ability to both make such high levels of contact against fastballs and hit the ball that hard is exceedingly rare. However, the flaws jump off the page, as well. We see very poor swing decisions, especially against offspeed pitches and sliders, and it challenges Mauricio in doing anything at all against offspeed pitches. He also struggled to lift the ball, severely limiting his power upside.
We see a broadly-similar profile as a righty. His bat speed and power numbers are roughly equivalent, so he has the same power upside from both sides of the plate. He also made more contact against non-fastballs, both in-zone and out-of-zone.
The stark difference is that he was much more aggressive against pretty much all pitch types and chased an alarming 48% of the time. However, when you make so much contact, it’s easy to see why he feels like he can swing at anything.
Let’s see how he’s doing in the very early going of 2025 at Triple-A:
We see the swing decisions are roughly equivalent, as are the raw power numbers, which have perhaps even ticked up a bit.
There is one subtle but massive difference: Mauricio is now making his best contact in the air. It’s extremely early, but given that he’s had basically a full season to work on things, it makes sense that this is what the Mets have been working on fixing. Both his average exit velocity on fly balls, as well as his hard-hit launch angles, suggest he may have learned how to lift the ball. If he can start to do that while retaining most of his elite contact ability, this is the recipe for an absolute superstar.
I don’t write about vibes too often. When I saw Mauricio in his debut in 2023, he looked the part of a player who thrives when the lights are brightest and the competition at the highest level. Some will point to his chase issues and write him off. While I’m sympathetic to that viewpoint, I ask myself this question: If a player has all the tools you want (power, speed and contact) and all they need to do is choose to swing a little less to fully tap into their potential, are you betting they won’t just do that? We’re seeing it from Oneil Cruz this season. We may not see it right away from Mauricio, but he’s talented enough that he’ll be successful even with his current makeup and perhaps an absolute mega-star if he chooses to swing less.
Colson Montgomery, SS, White Sox
Montgomery has been on a tear since coming back to Triple-A following a brief hiatus to re-tool. His once atrocious contact skills are now looking close to average:
While his raw power is exceptional for a shortstop, his average launch angle on hard-hit balls is much lower than his average, suggesting he makes his best contact when he hits the ball on the ground. He’s spent a lot of time at Triple-A already, but he likely needs a little more time to figure out his swing. As is, he’ll likely need a somewhat-lengthy adjustment period at the major league level when he gets the call.
Christian Franklin, RF, Cubs
Franklin headlined our April 7 Statcast Standouts. He might just be one of the most underrated prospects in all of baseball. Let me show you why:
Franklin sees the ball really well, making exceptional swing decisions against all pitch types. That’s especially so against offspeed pitches and sliders.
If you look at sliders down and away, we see one strikeout (the big X) but many more pitches taken for walks or balls, as well as home run on a hanging slider.
Against fastballs, we see that he’ll often whiff when he chases above the zone but does a ton of damage when itsin the top third. Large gold bubbles indicate hard contact in the air. Given his prodigious swing decisions, I expect Franklin to either learn to lay off the fastball just above the zone or learn how to hit it.
Alejandro Osuna, OF, Rangers
Osuna was one of my picks for the Not 100 team, and I’m feeling pretty good about that right now given his recent callup:
We’re dealing with a very small sample of batted balls, so the more reliable power metric is likely the 90th percentile exit velocity, which is comfortably plus. What really stands out are the impeccable swing decisions, which are combined with elite zone and chase contact skills. This is a very good hitter who might just hit enough to stick in the majors without having ever graced the Top 100 list.
Andrew Pinckney, OF, Nationals
Pinckney is this week’s mash/whiff feature. His ability to mash is easily plus-plus, but he has a massive hole against fastballs:
Pinckney needs to start making far more contact against fastballs—specifically in the zone—in order to make a case for a big league debut. These profiles rarely work out, but every once in a while you get a Matt Wallner-type of breakout.
Cole Young, SS, Mariners
Young has hit at every level, and it’s easy to see why:
That said, he has roughly average raw power with a swing geared to spray line drives all over the field rather than hit home runs. Triple-A pitchers have no fear of his power, targeting him with fastballs 58% of the time.
Young very clearly struggles to make good contact against fastballs on the inner third and isn’t especially dangerous in the heart of the zone, either. This is something he’ll need to fix. It also appears that he’s just fighting off those inside pitches and whiffing a lot more on the pitches middle or away. He’ll need to become more dangerous against fastballs in order to be a productive major league hitter.
Jonathon Long, 1B/3B, Cubs
Long was another player from the Not 100 team and is looking quite good in Triple-A. After posting a 148 wRC+ across two levels last year—including 17 home runs—Long is hitting .357/.420/.548, which is good for a 152 wRC+ in Triple-A.
Long hits the ball incredibly hard, with roughly 70-grade raw power and 55-to-60 game power given the launch angles. He does not chase non-fastballs, and when he attacks pitches in the zone, he does a lot of damage against all pitch types. He’s a little older than some prospects, but at 23 years old, he still has plenty of upside. If he keeps this up and doesn’t get called up, he’ll be a Top 100 prospect very soon.
Kyle Teel, C, White Sox
Teel’s exit velocity and launch angle metrics point to a hitter with roughly average power, but his zone contact leaves a lot to be desired. However, sometimes the Statcast metrics don’t tell you the full story. I believe that’s the case with Teel. Let me show you why:
Teel has a knack for barrelling up fastballs in the upper two-thirds of the zone. The whiffs are plentiful, but he’d dangerous enough that pitchers can’t just attack him with high fastballs and get away with it. That’s the first piece of the story.
Against sliders, Teel is posting an elite chase rate, as well as an elite chase contact rate, which helps him avoid strikeouts against sliders, with only three strikeouts coming on sliders chased below the zone. If he gets a hanging slider in the bottom half, he’ll crush it.
This is even more impressive against breaking balls, where Teel is a monster against pitches down and away from him, with very few whiffs in zone and very little chase. He has a precocious ability against Triple-A quality sliders and breaking balls, suggesting a great hit tool.
While the zone contact against fastballs leaves me a tad worried, the scatterplots give me confidence that Teel will over-perform.
Joel Peguero, RHP, Giants
Peguero popped onto my radar a few weeks ago, but he’s worth mentioning again after he did this yesterday:
The sinker is an elite pitch, while the four-seam fastball will underperform the elite velocity due to terrible shape. I’d love to see him lean into just the sinker/slider pair and just throw the sinker down the middle. The pitch has elite velocity as well as strong SSW movement. He has a long track record of throwing this hard, but he needs to find that next level of command.
