What makes the modern era especially daunting for hitters is that today’s hardest throwers aren’t relying on raw velocity alone. Pitch shapes are more refined than ever, and secondary offerings are designed to play off elite fastballs with maximum intent.

It’s no longer just about how hard a pitch is thrown. It’s about how that velocity integrates into a complete arsenal.

Today, we’ll examine how some of baseball’s most electric arms are weaponizing their fastballs in a velocity-saturated landscape.

Triple‑Digit Starters

Only four starting pitchers have touched 100 mph at least five times this season:

• Hunter Greene, RHP, Reds (134 such pitches)
• Jacob Misiorowski, RHP, Brewers (62)
• Jordan Hicks, RHP, Red Sox (21)
• Tarik Skubal, LHP, Tigers (16)

The conversation starts with Misiorowski, who has taken the league by storm since debuting earlier in June.

The former Juco product has intrigued evaluators since joining the Brewers, but his national breakout came during the 2023 Futures Game. Now, the stuff is translating at the highest level.

What jumps out through Misiorowski’s first three starts is the suppression of contact quality. In a small sample (min. 25 balls in play), no pitcher has allowed a lower batting average, slugging percentage or weighted on-base average.

This is why, among his ERA estimators, xERA shines as so dominant. Conversely, the more traditional metrics are a bit behind (though still elite, to be clear).

The reason is that Misiorowski’s current 12.5 BB% would be the second-highest in the majors among qualified starters. He offsets it with a strikeout rate that would lead the league and a home run rate that appears lucky on paper, yet has been a consistent strength since his minor league days.

It’s outlier stuff on both ends. That’s what happens when you’re throwing 99.6 mph with the hardest slider and third-hardest curveball in the majors.

Then there’s Greene, currently on the injured list for the second time this season with groin and back issues. The silver lining is it’s not arm-related. Still, the spike in velocity has naturally raised some concerns about durability.

It was clear early in 2025 that this was a new version of Greene, one who had fully evolved. He’s pairing bullpen-grade heat with a starter’s workload.

Greene’s fastball has long stood out for its velocity, but the shape placed it in the so-called “dead zone,” where four-seamers lack ride or run. One way to overcome that flaw? Throw even harder.

His 2024 breakout (before this year’s velo bump) was in part fueled by the addition of a splitter. Baseball Savant’s movement profiles show how that pitch altered his arsenal: It breaks in the same general direction as the fastball, but arrives more than 10 mph slower. It’s a sequencing weapon that punishes fastball sitters.

Could triple digits ever become sustainable in a rotation? There’s valid skepticism, especially across three times through the order. However, as innings-per-start shrink, starters may empty the tank over fewer innings. Greene and Misiorowski are the leading test cases for what that future might look like.

Max‑Effort Velo

This is the modern closer: A former starter with enough health or durability questions that teams opted to unleash him in short bursts. The result? The hardest fastball in baseball.

Mason Miller is an outlier, having thrown 60 pitches at least 102 mph this year. By comparison, Aroldis Chapman with the Red Sox ranks second with 13.

It’s been a strange year for the Athletics righthander, whose 4.85 ERA doesn’t line up with any of his estimators.

The disconnect stems from an uncharacteristic 1.2 HR/9, a spike possibly linked to Sacramento’s mound conditions or small-sample noise. Notably, three of his four home runs allowed have come at home.

In conjunction with the hardest fastball in baseball, Miller throws an 87.4 mph slider. Hitters are forced to guess which pitch is coming and hope to square it up if they guess right. When his command is even average, Miller is nearly untouchable.

Other similar profiles include Jhoan Duran (Twins), Ryan Helsley (Cardinals) and Daniel Palencia (Cubs).

With lighter workloads out of the bullpen, these arms can let it loose on every pitch.

Heat With Movement

Then there are the relievers who don’t just throw 100 mph, but pair that velocity with movement, too.

Two of the best examples this season are Chapman and the Guardians’ Emmanuel Clase.

Chapman didn’t throw a sinker more than 10% of the time until 2023. Since then, its usage has climbed steadily, peaking at 32% this year with the Red Sox. He now throws his sinker and four-seamer a combined 75% of the time.

The results have been outstanding, as it’s arguably Chapman’s best season since 2016. That’s the power of combining elite velocity with run.

Meanwhile, Clase is bringing his signature cutter in at over 99 mph with sharp, gloveside movement.

He struggled with command early, allowing 10 earned runs in April alone, but those issues have since stabilized. His season-long BABIP remains elevated, but Clase has largely returned to form.

With outlier velocity on both his cutter and slider, he still features one of the most unhittable pitch combinations in baseball.

Like with MLB’s other highest-velocity pitchers, it’s proof that it’s not just how hard you throw, but how you weaponize it.

The post Jacob Misiorowski’s 100 MPH Stuff Fueling Breakout With Brewers As MLB Velocities Rise appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

It turns out, the same is true with umpires when it comes to calling balls and strikes.

I know. I’ll pause for a minute. Let it out. I’m sure you’re stewing about some blown call against your favorite team that happened last night or a couple of games ago. It still happens.

• SEE ALSO: Yes, Triple-A Does Have A Smaller Strike Zone Than MLB

Many of you are probably screaming for robot umpires at this moment. But if you look at the consistency of the strike zone, it’s remarkable how much things have changed in the past 18 seasons. Even as pitchers have gotten better and better at throwing high-octane pitches with baffling movement, the strike zone is much more consistent and the number of missed calls has dropped dramatically.

How A Strike Call Changes Over Time

Let’s start with an example. Imagine there’s a lefty batter at the plate, and the pitcher has been nibbling, staying away, away, away. In a two-strike count, he puts the ball (the black dot) here:

Here’s a visual example of a pitch in that spot from the pitcher’s viewpoint:

I think we can all agree that a pitch in this location is a ball. It’s well off the plate and can be almost into the righthanded hitter’s batter’s box by the time it gets to the catcher.

In 2008, this pitch was called a strike once out of almost every four times a lefty took it.

If you want an example of how umpiring has gotten much more consistent in recent years, zone 24 on the graphic above is where I go. That pitch has gone from being called a strike one out of every four times to one out of every 1,000. It’s happened six times all season. But back in 2009, there were over 4,000 strikes called on that pitch to lefty hitters.

That’s a remarkable difference. Here’s a closer look at the numbers on the pitch:

The strike zone has gotten more vertical in recent years, as the edges of the zone in and out have been sanded down. But more than that, it’s just become more consistent.

Before we go any further, it is important to note that all of this data is gathered from MLB pitch data at BaseballSavant.com. Since 2008’s arrival of PitchFX with Trackman doppler radar data and on through the adoption of Statcast with Hawkeye optical tracking, every pitch is plotted at the plate and categorized by numerical zone, as the top graphic illustrates. To do this research, we downloaded the data on all taken pitches and whether they were called a ball or a strike for all 36 separate attack zones.

Calls In The Shadow Zone

Ok, let’s move in a bit from zone 24 to the “shadow zone.”

This is the area right around the plate on the very edges of it at the top, bottom and sides of the zone. Pitches located here are in a gray area where taken pitches are sometimes called strikes and sometimes called balls. If you are a strict about your rule book, you may argue that anything outside of the “heart” of the zone should be called a ball, but the shadow zone has always been the area where hitters and pitchers know that pitches could be called either way.

From 2008 (the start of pitch tracking data) to now, pitches in the shadow zone have generally hovered around a 50% called strike rate.

Over that period, that 11-14-17 area on the inner edge of the zone for righthanded hitters has always been a coin-flip area for called strikes. In 2008, pitches there against righties were called strikes 46.3% of the time. That number has slowly dipped to 39.4% of the time this year. It was 41.1% last year. As we noted before, the zone has narrowed on the edges.

But that exact same spot against a lefthanded hitter used to be a strike more often than not. In 2008, pitches in that area were called strikes 61.3% of the time against lefties. It stayed above 60% until the 2016 season. It dipped to a 50-50 coin flip in 2021. Now, it’s 39.6% of the time—right in line with how that pitch is called against a righthanded hitter.

It used to be that pitchers could edge the zone out further and further against lefties. Now, the zone stays tied to home plate.

There was a similar issue on the other side of the plate—away from righthanded hitters and in on lefties—but the percentages were different. In 2008, 48.4% of pitches in the 13-16-19 zones were called strikes against righthanded hitters, but only 28% of the time was that a called strike against a lefty. The percentage of strike calls in that zone against lefties has actually gone up to 34.3% in 2025 (it was 37.5% last year). But for righties, it’s stayed relatively static. This year it’s 45.4% of the time, but it was 50.5% last year.

A Narrowing Zone

So, the strike zone has gotten narrower and more consistent. It’s also gotten vertically larger, mainly because umpires now call low strikes in the zone.

Zones 7-8-9 are the bottom third of the heart of the strike zone. These are viewed as pitches within the zone, inside that shadow zone we talked about before.

But in 2008-2009, pitchers only had an 80% shot of getting a pitch called a strike in that bottom third of the zone, even though that is defined as clearly a strike. As umpiring has improved, and as MLB teams have worked with catchers to get them to better present low pitches—one-knee catching also helps umpires get a better view—that strike rate has climbed steadily. Nowadays, 99% of pitches in the lower third of the zone are called strikes.

Overall, the zone has gotten narrower over the past 18 seasons. It’s also gotten a bit deeper, as pitches at the bottom of the strike zone and in the shadow zone beneath the strike zone are more often called strikes nowadays.

To illustrate this, let’s compare the strike zone charts from 2008 and 2025. Here’s the percentage of called strikes in each shadow and chase zone in 2008:

And here’s the same graphic for called strikes in 2025. As you can see, the called strikes in the chase zone have largely disappeared, and the calls in the shadow zone have moved:

For a better look at the changes, here’s the change in percentage points for each zone from 2008 to 2025. There are many more called strikes at the bottom of the zone, but fewer called strikes on the edges of the plate.

But the changes aren’t just on the edges.

In 2008, a taken pitch in the heart of the zone was called a strike 92.4% of the time. It has steadily edged upward since then to the point where this year, those pitches are called strikes 99.3% of the time. Calling a pitch located in the heart of the plate a strike would seem elemental to umpiring a baseball game, but as the numbers show, it’s been a work in progress.

Here’s the called-strike rate by zone for each of the past 18 seasons. They show that the zone that should always be called strikes (heart) and always should be called balls (chase/waste) have steadily edged toward that reality:

So, the next time you get frustrated by a bad call on a pitch, try to remember that the umpires are much more consistent now than they were just a few years ago.

The post MLB Umpires Have Gotten Much Better At Calling Balls & Strikes appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

It’s something we here at Baseball America have heard in numerous discussions over the past several years, as pitchers, coaches and front office officials have described the Triple-A zone as smaller than before. It’s led to challenges for pitchers coming up from Double-A while also lowering the difference between Triple-A and the majors for pitchers with control issues.

Now, we have the data to prove it. Using data on compiled called strike rates in various zones, it does appear that the Triple-A zone is actually smaller than the MLB zone.

• SEE ALSO: MLB Umpires Have Gotten Much Better At Calling Balls & Strikes

Triple-A uses the Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) challenge system, in which batters or pitchers can challenge a limited number of calls in each game. If computer pitch-tracking rules that the pitch was called incorrectly, the call is overturned.

But this goes beyond that, since there are only a few overturned calls per game. With that constant feedback, umpires are getting reminders to call pitches to reflect the ABS-style strike zone (since any missed calls could be overturned).

As we have seen at the major league level, continual feedback and data helps umpires standardize their ball-strike calls much more nowadays than they used to. And in Triple-A, that has led to a smaller strike zone.

As seen in the table below, when it comes to the edges of the strike zone—the “shadow zone” as it is defined by MLB—there are fewer called strikes in Triple-A than MLB. Each pitch in Triple-A and MLB are tracked by Statcast’s optical tracking zone for where it crosses the zone.

This doesn’t look at what percentage of pitches are thrown in each zone—it only looks at whether a taken pitch in each zone is called a ball or a strike. So, the better control of MLB pitchers should not affect these called strike rates.

The two zones are getting closer to each other year after year, but the MLB zone sees fewer pitches in the heart of the zone called strikes, and it has more pitches in the shadow zone called strikes.

If you get more granular, there are specific locations within the two strike zones where the differences are much more apparent. In fact, there are a couple of spots where the Triple-A strike zone and the MLB strike zone are extremely different.

Take Zone 11, which is up and in on righthanded hitters and up and away from lefthanded hitters:

In the major leagues, a pitch here is called a strike 85% of the time this year. That rate has steadily increased, but the called strike rate in that zone has been above 70% for each year of the past 18 seasons.

In Triple-A, that’s a ball. It’s only called a strike 27% of the time. But one spot over in Zone 12—the shadow zone directly above the plate above the top of the heart of the zone—the MLB zone only sees a 41% strike percentage, while Triple-A sees a 67% called strike rate.

Things get even weirder. Zone 13, which is the mirror image zone to Zone 11 on the other side of the top of the plate, is usually called a ball at both the major and Triple-A levels:

Here, there’s a minuscule 19% called-strike rate in the majors, but a 31% called-strike rate in Triple-A. In this measure, Triple-A is much more consistent, as the mirror image top edges of the shadow zone are seeing similar called strike rates. In the major leagues, there is a massive difference between a 19% called strike rate in zone 13 and 85% of the time in Zone 11.

The MLB and Triple-A zones do somewhat agree on the shadow zones at the middle edges of the plate with Zone 14 (54% for MLB and Triple-A) and Zone 16 (59% for MLB and 55% for Triple-A). 

At the bottom of the zone, MLB has a higher frequency of called strikes in the shadow zone. Below, you can see the difference in each shadow zone, with positive numbers indicating where MLB has more called strikes and negative numbers showing where Triple-A has more called strikes.

So, the Triple-A zone is more likely to get a called strike in only two of the eight shadow zones. One is equivalent between MLB and Triple-A and five zones are more likely to see a called strike in the majors.

Both MLB and Triple-A see very few strikes called these days in the chase zone. In none of these zones are over 1% of taken pitches called strikes. It is worth noting that, despite the challenge system, there are still called strikes in these zones in Triple-A, even if all of these would logically be overturned if challenged. In the largest example, there have been 64 called strikes in Zone 22 at the very middle above the zone. There is no other chase zone where there have been more than 25 called strikes in Triple-A.

But overall, pitchers do get fewer called strikes in Triple-A than the major leagues. MLB is still a much tougher test than the highest level of the minors, but the next time you hear a pitcher says he feels he’s getting squeezed in Triple-A, understand that he has a point.

For those who are interested in replicating this, BaseballSavant allows anyone to select by attack zone and by pitch result. For balls, select Balls and Balls In Dirt and run that query with “league and year” selected in the “Group By” tab. For called strikes, select called strikes and run the same type of query. Once you have gathered both results, the called strike rate is the number of strikes in that zone for that year, divided by the number of balls and strikes in that zone.

The post Yes, Triple-A Does Have A Smaller Strike Zone Than MLB appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

Burns currently ranks No. 8 on the Baseball America Top 100 Prospects rankings. He will become the sixth starting pitcher in the Top 100 to debut this season.

And most likely, soon after he throws his first pitch, Burns will become the fourth rookie starter this season to throw 100 mph in a big league game, joining Jacob Misiorowski, Chase Dollander and Roki Sasaki.

Burns has thrown six 100+ mph pitches in two Triple-A starts. Add in the adrenaline of an MLB debut, and it will be surprising if he doesn’t crack the century mark at least once on Tuesday.

When he does so, it will mark yet another step in an eye-opening stat. It isn’t normal to have this many rookies arrive throwing at velocity levels that, until not that long ago, were only the domain of relievers.

As recently as 2017, there were only six starting pitchers who threw a 100 mph fastball in a season. With the impending arrivals of Bubba Chandler, Andrew Painter and possibly Brandon Sproat later this season, it’s not inconceivable that there will be six or seven rookie starters who touch 100 this year. Those three (and Burns) have all thrown 100 mph in Triple-A this year.

Their arrival will further boost the year of the 100 mph starting pitcher. There have already been 17 MLB starters who have touched triple digits this season. That’s tied for the second most in the Statcast/PitchFX eras (2008-present), two behind 2024’s 19.

There already have been more 100+ mph pitches thrown by starters than there were in any season from 2008-2015, and it’s possible that this year will top last year’s total of 264 before the end of June.

Now, I am guessing that many will wonder if this is a good thing. After all, as a pitcher throws harder, he increases the stress on the ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow. If all these young pitchers are going to be stars briefly before blowing out their arm and never returning, then no, it wouldn’t be good for them or baseball.

But how realistic is that? We can look at it two ways.

There are 42 starting pitchers who touched 100 mph in their rookie MLB season since Statcast/PitchFX began pitch tracking in 2008. This list does not include openers who pitched just one or two innings and were otherwise relievers.

Of those 42 pitchers, 33% had Tommy John surgery after their debut (thanks to Jon Rogele’s invaluable Tommy John database). If you include Tommy John surgeries before a pitcher reached the majors, the percentage jumps to 42%. Both of those numbers are in the range of 38.8% of MLB pitchers (in 2024) who have had Tommy John surgery at some point in their career.

So the risk is there, but it’s somewhat in line with the overall Tommy John risk rate for MLB pitchers. And if you look at the list of 100 mph starting pitchers in the Statcast era (2008-present) who threw 20+ 100 mph pitches, something else stands out.

It’s not a list of what could have beens—it’s a list with a lot of aces.

Now, the injury rate for the 20+ 100 mph pitch group is higher, as 58.6% (17 of 29) on the list have had Tommy John surgery. The actual number of surgeries is 20, as Shohei Ohtani, Spencer Strider, Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob deGrom each had two.

But that list of 29 pitchers also boasts some of the best pitchers of the 21st century. Of the eight active pitchers who have thrown 1,900 or more career innings, two (Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole) rank in the top 10 in 100+ mph pitches from a starter. If you expand out to the top 25 in active innings (1,340+ innings), that adds Eovaldi and deGrom.

Of the top 20 pitchers in innings pitched in the Statcast era, seven have touched 100 mph at some point during that time frame, including all three at the top of the leaderboard (Verlander, Zack Greinke and Max Scherzer).

Looked at a different way, the 29 starters who have thrown 20+ 100 mph pitches in the majors includes five Cy Young winners who combined for eight Cy Youngs (deGrom, Verlander, Cole, Sandy Alcantara and Tarik Skubal). There are another 10 of those 29 who had a year or more where they received Cy Young votes (Hunter Greene, Noah Syndergaard, Eovaldi, Carlos Martinez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Ohtani, Spencer Strider, Luis Severino, Stephen Strasburg and Shane McClanahan).

Between the 29 players, there have been 92 2+ bWAR seasons. Of them, 19 have had a 3+ bWAR season, and 13 have 10+ career bWAR.

Yes, there are cautionary tales. Syndergaard looked like a long-term ace when he arrived in 2015, and he went 14-9, 2.60 to earn Cy Young votes in 2016 in his age 23 season. He later had Tommy John surgery in 2020. While he had a solid bounce-back season in 2022, that was his last year as a productive starter. The hope is that McClanahan can return to his pre-injury form, but he looks likely to be sidelined for more than two years since his August 2023 elbow injury.

Part of this is understandably how human nature works. It’s easy to look at deGrom as an example of the perils of throwing too hard for one’s own good. But to view it that way ignores the stretch from 2014-2021 when he was arguably the best pitcher in baseball and was durable. He was Rookie of the Year, a two-time Cy Young winner and a four-time All-Star. From 2015-2020, he had a six-season stretch where he missed a total of 20 days to injury (two 10-day IL stints) over six seasons.

And it also ignores the fact that deGrom has managed to return to fine form this season as a 37-year-old who can still reach back for 98-100 mph when he needs it.

We don’t know what Burns’ future will be. But with his stuff, he has a chance to be special, from his first MLB game on the mound.

The post Chase Burns Set To Join Growing List Of Starting Pitchers Who Throw 100 MPH appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

We also break down Reds top prospect Chase Burns making his MLB debut on Tuesday and discuss the latest whispers surrounding the top of the MLB Draft.

Time Stamps

• (0:50) Chase Burns set to make MLB debut on Tuesday
• (10:00) Orioles RHP Trey Gibson joins the show
• (23:30) Kade Anderson’s draft buzz for SP1
• (25:40) Gage Wood’s late rise up boards
• (27:15) Who the Rays might draft
• (28:45) Who the Marlins might draft
• (30:45) Draft buzz to know

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The post Orioles RHP Trey Gibson Joins, Chase Burns Ready For Debut & MLB Draft News| Hot Sheet Show appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

It’s hard to imagine what more Misiorowski could have done to announce himself to the larger baseball world. He threw 11 hitless innings to begin his MLB career. He carried a perfect game into the seventh inning on Friday. His 11 hitless innings to start his career are the best by a starter.

But it’s the stuff that makes comparisons almost impossible. Misiorowski sat at 100-101 mph on Friday, and he averaged 100.4 mph with his fastball. He threw only four fastballs under 99 mph all night, three of which were in the seventh inning. His 95-96 mph slider is something that the game has never seen.

After sitting for 20 minutes during a long top of the seventh, Misiorowski’s stuff wasn’t the same when he finally came back out. His velocity dipped by 2-3 mph as he walked the first batter he faced on four pitches and then gave up a two-run homer to Matt Wallner. He was quickly pulled after that.

That first hit Misiorowski allowed provided only a slight blemish on an exceptionally loud introduction to the majors. One of the best aspects of a phenomenal debut is trying to draw comparisons. For many, Stephen Strasburg’s electric debut remains the most dominant memory of a highly-touted rookie living up to expectations. Paul Skenes similarly dominated from day one.

Dominating Debuts

As good as Stephen Strasburg’s MLB debut was, Misiorowski is showing significantly better stuff and better command. Strasburg was pitching in an era with less stuff, but he sat 98 mph and touched 100.1 mph once in his debut. His changeup was a 90 mph pitch and he threw a low-80s curve.

Misiorowski dropped in an 86-87 mph curve to keep hitters off balance. It seemed almost unfair to add that to his 100-102 mph fastball and mid-90s slider.

In this second MLB start, Misiorowski threw 29 100+ mph pitches. Only Hunter Greene and Jacob deGrom have thrown more than that in an MLB start (since Statcast measurements began in 2008, which is the case for all of these stats). 

Those 29 100+ mph pitches by themselves would slot him at the 23rd most in an MLB career by an MLB starter.

Throw in the 14 100+ mph pitches he had in his first start, and he already ranks 18th on the Statcast starting pitcher career list. At this rate, he’ll move into the top 15 with his next start.

His 18 101+ mph pitches already rank as the seventh most in a career by a starter. Only Hunter Greene, Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander have more than 40 in a career.

A Ferocious Slider

Misiorowski’s his slider may be even crazier to explain. Just don’t ask Willi Castro.

Misiorowski threw four 96+ mph sliders, three of which were strikes. He threw four in his first start, as well. No other MLB starter has thrown more than three at that velocity in their career. Every other starter since 2008 combined have just 17.

But Misiorowski didn’t just throw—he pitched. As we detailed last month, Misiorowski throws strikes nowadays at a rate that seemed hard to believe just last year. Misiorowski had never thrown 60% strikes in a minor league season coming into this year. He had a 64% strike percentage in the minors this year , and he has a 65% strike percentage in his first two MLB starts.

He consistently found the edges of the plate. He threw his slider for strikes 78% of the time. He dropped in his curve for strikes 73% of the time, and he threw his fastball for strikes 63% of the time. Only four batters got to a three-ball count.

Where does Misiorowski go from here? Down. No one can keep this up. But even if he loses a bit from this best-in-baseball stuff he’s shown so far, he looks like a starter no team wants to face and one who could be a brutal matchup for any team in a playoff series.

The post Jacob Misiorowski’s 100+ MPH Stuff Wows In Second Start appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

Depending on your viewpoint, that’s either an obvious statement, blasphemy or somewhere in between.

I’m not trying to argue that the baseball of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s or 2000s was a worse game to watch—that’s not what this story will cover. But I am saying that today’s players are better. They are, on average, bigger, stronger, faster and more skilled.

If you dig into what’s actually happening on the field, it’s hard not to appreciate how much better and better players have to be just to survive in MLB of the 2020s.

All data below use MLB’s Statcast numbers as gathered by Baseball Savant. Since 2008, MLB has tracked every pitch, and since 2015, it’s also tracked hits and fielder movement. So we now have this vast repository of how the game has been played for 18 seasons. We know how hard pitchers threw, where the pitch was located, whether it was called a ball or strike and much more.

Here are five examples of how the skill level of players just keeps getting better and how the game is changing.

1. Pitchers Are Nastier Than Ever

OK. This is the easy one. This is the one you had to expect, but let’s start with it anyway.

Every year, pitchers throw harder than they did the year before. While we may wonder if pitchers will eventually reach a max level of velocity, that ceiling appears to have not been reached yet.

Fastball velocity just keeps climbing. Four-seam fastball velocity has climbed by more than two mph since 2008. Sinkers have seen a three mph increase, while sliders and changeups have seen similar gains. And before you ask: Yes, this is all normalized to the same scale. The data can’t be explained away by changes in radar guns or other measurement technology. Pitches from 2008 and 2025 are being measured the same way, right out of the pitcher’s hand.

This steady increase of velocity year after year means that, over the course of a decade, what was once considered to be average becomes well below-average, and what was above-average becomes average. In 2008-10, lefthanded starters sat below 91 mph with their four-seamers. Now, they are averaging 93 mph. In 2008, that 93 mph average was where righthanded relievers sat. Now, you have to throw above 95 mph as a righthanded reliever to have average velocity.

In 2008, a full 3.1% of all pitches (21,933) were fastballs thrown 85 mph or softer. Last year, only 0.6% of pitches (4,609) were sub-85 mph fastballs. There are nearly as many 100+ mph fastballs thrown every month as there were thrown in the entire season during the 2008-09 time frame.

If you decry the decline of batting average and balls in play, this is somewhat to blame. In 2008, there were 1,493 hits on 85 mph or softer fastballs, as hitters slashed .291/.352/.454 against this well below-average velocity.

Last year, hitters hit .305/.363/.544 against those 85 mph or softer fastballs, but they only got 246 hits off of them, because there were so many fewer of those pitches thrown.

Hitters have had to adapt. There were fewer than 20 hits on 101+ mph fastballs in any season up to 2015. Last year, there were 64 hits on 101+ mph, but a lot of that was because of increased exposure. In 2011, there were 187 pitches of 101+. Last year there were 1,286. There were more pitches of 102+ mph last season than there were in 2008-2013 combined.

But pitchers have gotten nastier in other ways, as well. Over the past 18 seasons, fastball usage has steadily declined. Whereas hitters used to be able to try to get to fastball counts and then attack a pitcher, now they are seeing 8% fewer fastballs than they were in 2008-15. Those fastballs have been replaced by increases in breaking balls and offspeed pitches.

So pitchers are throwing harder, but they also are harder to predict for hitters.

2. These Harder-Throwing Pitchers Also Throw More Strikes

I can hear some of you yelling at me right now. 

To pre-emptively summarize your point: “Yes, these pitchers nowadays may throw harder, but it’s because baseball is breeding a generation of grunt-and-chuck-it throwers who lack the finesse, craft and pitching ability that old school pitchers used to have.”

It’s hard to fully define what separates pitchers from throwers, but can we agree that the ability to throw strikes is a pretty useful way to divide them? Well, when it comes to throwing strikes, pitchers are much better now than they were 10 or 15 years ago.

The strike rate in 2008 was 62.6%. It climbed above 63% in 2011, and it hasn’t dipped below that since. It topped 64% in 2014, and it’s largely hovered around that line for the past decade. Last year, the number was 64.4%, which is the best strike rate since Statcast data began. This year, it’s dipped back to 63.9%.

Now, those are all strikes, so if hitters are getting less selective and swinging at everything, that would be reflected in those numbers. But we can also look at where pitches are crossing the plate for every year since 2008. And today’s pitchers are in the strike zone or right at the edges of the zone more often now than they were 10, 15 or 18 years ago.

This is how Statcast data characterizes the pitch zones. There are pitches across the heart of the zone, which is what we would think of as the strike zone. Then there is the shadow zone, which is where pitchers love to live and where pitches may be called balls or strikes. There’s the chase zone, which is well off the zone but still an area where less-selective hitters may still swing. Lastly, there is the waste zone, which is where a pitcher is being non-competitive and throwing an almost automatic ball.

Pitchers threw 25.9% of pitches in the strike zone (heart of the zone) in 2008. It has steadily risen since then and this year, it’s at 27.5%, the best year we’ve seen. The percentage of pitches in the “shadow” zone at the edge of the strike zone has also increased slightly. It was 42.2% in 2008, this year it’s 42.9%. The number of pitches in the “chase zone” was 22.6% in 2008. It’s 21.7% now. The number of non-competitive waste pitches was 9.3% in 2008. It’s 7.9% now.

It could be argued that pitchers in the late 2000s had to nibble more because there were more soft-tossers who couldn’t get outs in the strike zone, while pitchers today have more ability to beat hitters in the zone. That may be true, but the fact remains that pitchers today are around and in the zone more than pitchers of a generation ago, and they’ve stopped throwing as many pitches that miss the zone by a large amount.

Digging deeper into this, the locations of breaking balls has stayed relatively static over the past 18 seasons, with roughly 25% of breaking balls being thrown in the zone, 40% being thrown in the shadow of the zone, 24% being thrown in the chase zone and 11-12% being thrown in the waste zone. The strike rate (including swings and balls in play) on breaking balls has remained at 61-62% for the entirety of the past 18 seasons.

But when it comes to fastballs, pitchers control them much better now than they did a generation ago. The strike rate on fastballs (including swings) has gone from 64% in 2008-10 to 65% from 2011-20 and 66% from 2021-25. It’s currently 66.33% this season. That’s slightly below last year’s 66.6%, which was the highest strike rate in the 18 seasons studied.

When it comes to location, the number of fastballs thrown in the zone has gone from 27% in 2008-10 to 31.6% this year. It’s increased steadily over the past 18 seasons. The rate of pitches in the shadow zone has also improved (from 43% in 2008-10 to 45% in 2022-25), while the number of fastballs in the chase zone and waste zones have decreased.

So, pitchers are throwing significantly harder than they were a generation ago, and they are locating their pitches more accurately while doing so.

3. Batters Are Hitting The Ball Harder

The rise of exit velocity for hitters is not as linear as the rise of pitching velocity, but it also is steadily increasing. 

We only have 11 years of hit tracked data (2015-present). In 2015, the average exit velocity on swings (not bunts) was 88.2 mph. That number was topped only once over the next four seasons. But we are seeing hitters hit the ball harder. This year’s 89.5 mph average exit velocity is the highest we’ve seen in the hit-tracking era, as only one other year (2023) has seen even an 89.0 mph exit velocity.

The change in exit velocities on home runs is a bit more noticeable. In 2015, the average home run EV was 103.2 mph. This year, it’s 104.7 mph. That EV topped 104 mph for the first time in 2021, and it hasn’t dipped below 104 mph since.

Similarly, the hard-hit rate on balls (balls hit 95+ mph) has gone from 33.9% in 2015 to 41.2% in 2025. The hard-hit rate has gone up steadily over the past 11 years.

Why does that matter? Over the past 11 seasons, hitters are hitting .225/.223/.266 on balls hit under 95 mph. On balls hit 95+ mph, they hit .516/.511/1.028.

So while pitchers are both getting nastier and throwing more strikes, hitters are managing to hit the ball harder more consistently.

4. Players Are More Athletic

In addition to having pitchers who throw harder and hitters who hit the ball harder, baseball players are also faster. In 2015, the first year that MLB tracked sprint speed—the speed of a player in the fastest one-second window when they are running hard)—the median team averaged 26.9 ft/second. This year, the median sprint speed is 27.3 feet/second. Last year it was 27.4.

That may seem like a modest difference, but it’s actually relatively dramatic.The Astros were the fastest team in baseball in 2015, with an average sprint speed of 27.5 feet/second. This year, the Astros once again have a 27.5 feet/second sprint speed. They rank seventh. This year, the Diamondbacks’ average of 26.9 feet/second ranks as the fourth-slowest team in the majors. In 2015, that would have made them an average team for sprint speed.

5. Catchers Are Better

The rise of increased coaching of catchers by MLB organizations has seen backstops get better at doing the dirty work of catching. Framing has been a key point of emphasis for MLB clubs, but we’ll leave that alone today, other than to say that the difference between the best and worst framers has steadily decreased thanks to catchers and coaching staffs working to fix deficiencies.

Today, we’ll instead focus on some of the more “traditional” aspects of catching. When it comes to throwing out basestealers, for example, catchers are much better today than they were just a decade ago.

Scouts have long measured “pop times” to evaluate a catcher’s throwing ability. It measures a catcher from pop (when the ball hits the catcher’s mitt) to pop (when the ball hits the infielder’s glove at second base).

In 2015, only five catchers with five or more throws to second averaged a pop time of under 1.95 seconds, led by Christian Bethancourt’s 1.89-second pop. This year, 27 catchers with five or more throws have a sub-1.95 second pop time. The median pop time on a throw to second is 1.96 in 2025, it was 2.02 in 2015. This year, 52 of 69 qualified catchers have a sub-2.0-second average pop time. In 2015, only 21 of 73 catchers cracked the 2.0-second mark.

What’s changed? Catchers have improved their arm strength. The median velocity on a throw in 2015 was 81.8 mph. This year it’s 82.7 mph. But more than that, catchers have also improved the mechanics of their transfers. In 2015, the best exchange (from catch to release) was .61 seconds, and the median time on an exchange was 0.75. This year, the best exchange is .55 seconds, and the median time on an exchange is 0.65 seconds.

To take a couple of examples of veterans, J.T. Realmuto doesn’t throw as hard as he did in 2015, but his pop time has improved because he’s cut his exchange time from 0.75 seconds in 2015 and 0.70 seconds in 2016 to 0.65 in 2024 and 0.59 in 2025. Salvador Perez has lost more than five mph off his average throw comparing 2015 to 2025, but his pop time has remained the same because he has cut more than a tenth of a second off his exchange time.

From 2018-2025, MLB has also tracked the number of pitches that needed to be blocked by a catcher. That number consistently hovers around roughly 190,000 pitches a season. In 2018-2021, teams gave up 2,000-2,100 passed balls and wild pitchers per season. That number dipped below 1,700 in 2025 and it is on pace to be lower again this season. The rise of PitchCom communicators has surely helped with this, but even as pitchers are throwing harder, there are less pitches getting by catchers.

Conclusion

So, we have harder-throwing pitchers who throw more strikes facing harder-hitting hitters who also are faster than before. And we have catchers who are throwing harder while also using better mechanics.

Part of that is assuredly the steady increase in athleticism that is seen in virtually all sports. But there’s likely another factor at play as well. Because all of these aspects of the game are measured, teams and players can see weaknesses and improve them. A pitcher getting rocked at 93-94 mph may spend an offseason figuring out how to throw 95-96. A catcher who can’t throw out baserunners can work with a catching coach to improve his exchange. And now there is recorded data to check and verify whether the fixes are actually helping or not.

But another reality is also at play. What was good enough to make a player a successful big leaguer in 2010 isn’t enough to stick around in 2025.

To succeed players, have to keep getting better, because the next wave of players is unceasingly going to be throwing harder and hitting harder than the group before them. To just hang on, players can’t stand still, because the skill required keeps increasing.

The post Modern MLB Players Are Better Than Past Players—Here Are 5 Reasons Why appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

Time Stamps

• (0:30) Initial reactions to the trade
• (7:45) Digging into the prospect return: James Tibbs & Jose Bello
• (13:15) Did the Red Sox get enough back in the deal?
• (17:50) Breaking down the trade from the Giants’ perspective
• (21:10) How Devers fits with SF
• (24:00) Will the Sox sign their prospect core long-term now?
• (25:15) Will Boston make another move this season?
• (27:00) Aidan Miller

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The post Red Sox Trade Rafael Devers To The Giants | Hot Sheet Show appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

The move was the final conclusion to a standoff that’s been brewing between the team and Devers dating back to spring training. The deal allows Boston to shed the remaining money on Devers’ 10-year, $313 million contract while the Giants land a superstar bat for their middle of their lineup as they chase the defending World Series champion Dodgers in the NL West.

This seems like a clear sign of two organizations headed in different directions. The Giants are loading up to compete with the juggernaut Dodgers and their deep pockets, while the Red Sox are in talent acquisition mode and beginning to lean into the young core within their organization.

As part of the return for Devers, the Red Sox acquired pitchers Kyle Harrison and Jordan Hicks, adding a pair of potential starting pitchers capable of deepening a rotation that’s been thin at points this season. Both Harrison and Hicks have multiple years of control, with Harrison still in pre-arbitration and Hicks in the second year of a four year $44 million contract.

GIANTS RECEIVE

Rafael Devers, DH/3B
Age: 28

After the Red Sox signed Alex Bregman to a three-year, $120 million contract in February, the team and Devers began to face questions regarding his future position. Boston clearly wanted Devers to move to a designated hitter role a majority of the time while also getting in some work at first base. Devers, however, didn’t take kindly to the suggestion and very publicly stated that he wanted to play third base every day. Eventually, Devers accepted his role as the team’s everyday designated hitter and, after a slow start to the year, has caught fire, hitting his 15th home run of the season on Sunday for what would be his final home run as a member of the Red Sox. 

Devers was signed by the team in August 2013 and ranked as the No. 2 prospect in the Red Sox system in 2016 and 2017. He ranked as high as No. 18 on the Top 100 Prospects list and was considered one of the elite hitting prospects in the game at the time of his promotion. Devers hit .284/.338/.482 with 10 home runs over 58 games as a rookie in 2017 at 20 years old. He would struggle in his second season, but helped lead the Red Sox to a World Series championship in 2018. He leaves the organization with 215 career home runs, hitting .279/.349/.510 over parts of nine seasons in Boston.  

RED SOX RECEIVE

James Tibbs, OF
Age: 22

San Francisco drafted Tibbs 13th overall last year out of Florida State. He split his pro debut between Low-A San Jose and High-A Eugene in 2024 and has spent all of this season at the latter level.

In the Northwest League this season, Tibbs started slowly but has gotten hot over the last few months. His overall numbers are depressed a bit by a BABIP of just .255, but he’s a well-rounded hitter who does a good job making contact and not chasing, and he hits the ball plenty hard, as well.

Tibbs should fit nicely in a corner outfield spot, and he’s spent all of his defensive time this season in right field, where his above-average arm should play.

Jordan Hicks, RHP
Age: 28

Once a fireballing reliever for the Cardinals and Blue Jays, Hicks made a successful jump to the rotation in 2024 after signing a four-year $44 million contract with the Giants. He put together a strong season last year, making 20 starts and pitching to a 4.10 ERA over 109.2 innings.

Hicks doesn’t strike out the amount of batters his mid-to-high-90s fastball velocity suggests. He is instead a groundball pitcher, boasting a 56.4% groundball rate in 2025. Hicks has struggled this season, as his 6.47 ERA suggests. However, ERA estimators are more rosy, as evidenced by a 3.59 FIP and 3.95 SIERA.

Hicks gives the Red Sox another starter on a reasonably cost-controlled contract who is also viable as a late inning, high-leverage relief option. 

Kyle Harrison, LHP
Age: 23

A 2020 third-round pick by the Giants out of De La Salle (Ca.) HS, Harrison was a highly-rated prospect, ranking 30th in baseball entering 2023. Harrison has had a solid but unspectacular MLB career to date, and he’s often found himself as the odd man out in the Giants rotation.

Over 182.2 career innings between 2023-2025, Harrison has a career 4.48 ERA with a 22.8% strikeout rate to an 8% walk rate. The flatter vertical approach angle on Harrison’s fastball fits with the traits the Red Sox tend to target. He shares several similarities in terms of fastball shape to Red Sox prospect Payton Tolle, though Harrison is quite a few inches shorter.

At 23 years old with several seasons of control remaining, Harrison is an intriguing buy for the Red Sox, as some added velocity and a few tweaks to his arsenal could see him find another gear as a viable midrotation arm.

Jose Bello, RHP
Age: 20

Bello signed with the Giants in 2023 as a 17-year-old and has spent the entirety of his career between the Dominican Summer and Arizona Complex leagues.

The 6-foot-1 righthander is projectable and fronts a four-pitch mix with a fastball that has run up to 95 mph this summer, though some evaluators believe the pitch can come in a bit flat at times. He backs the four-seamer with a cutter that averages around 94 mph, a slider with late, darting life in the low 80s and a seldom-used changeup in the high 80s. The slider is the best of the three pitches thanks to his ability to command it both in and out of the strike zone.

Bello has a whippy arm and creates deception thanks to a crossfire delivery and a lower release height. He also shows a feel to spin and can manipulate all four of his pitches. The result this year has been 28 strikeouts and just three walks in 18 innings. Evaluators tab him as a potential middle reliever who can work multiple innings.

The post Rafael Devers Trade: Red Sox Acquire Jordan Hicks, James Tibbs & More From Giants For Star Slugger appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

Note that recent callups such as Jac Caglianone and Roman Anthony were omitted due to so few plate appearances.

Jacob Wilson, SS, Athletics

Wilson is hitting .366 and ranks second in MLB in hits, behind only Aaron Judge. His elite plate discipline and bat control draw comparisons to Luis Arraez and Steven Kwan but with more underlying impact. Despite underwhelming hard-hit numbers, Wilson ranks in the 100th percentile for squared-up rate, allowing him to overcome the batted-ball concerns. He leads all rookies with 3.2 fWAR, more than double third place, and has emerged as the clear AL Rookie of the Year frontrunner.

Carlos Narváez, C, Red Sox

Narváez is second only to Wilson in rookie fWAR. Known for his defense, he has turned heads with a strong stretch at the plate after being acquired in a trade with the rival Yankees over the winter. His 8% barrel-per-PA rate is respectable, but pulling fly balls over 20% of the time adds extra value, especially at Fenway Park. With Boston’s lineup crowded by young talent, it remains to be seen if Narváez can finish the year as the team’s top rookie contributor.

Kristian Campbell, 2B, Red Sox

Campbell’s rookie year has cooled after a rough May. His strikeout rate spiked last month, and a rising groundball rate has limited his offensive ceiling. He’s shown signs of life in June, but the profile remains contact-dependent as he adjusts to the best pitching he’s ever seen. Defensively, it’s been a struggle. His -7 OAA at second base is among the worst at the position. He still has growth ahead on both sides of the ball.

Shane Smith, RHP, White Sox

Smith has been a Rule 5 success for the White Sox. His ERA outpaces his estimators, but he’s once again suppressing home runs at an extreme rate, something he consistently did in the minors. His changeup is the standout, generating a 35% whiff rate and ranking in the top five in slugging percentage allowed. The pitch has helped him survive while relying on the command of an otherwise below-average fastball. He packages it together with a wide enough arsenal to keep hitters off balance.

Ben Casparius, RHP, Dodgers

It’s unlikely that we’ve seen the final version of Casparius. The transition from relieving to starting would be enough of a catalyst on its own, but he’ll also benefit from the Dodgers’ player development resources. The 26-year-old already throws four pitches regularly, so any changes could be more tweaks than an overhaul. He hasn’t yet experienced significant issues with lefties, but glancing at his repertoire’s movement profiles, one can’t help but wonder how a changeup or sinker could further unlock his starting potential.

Cade Horton, RHP, Cubs

Horton hasn’t overwhelmed, but he’s held his own. The 23-year-old has gone at least five innings in five straight starts while keeping walks in check. He’s utilizing four pitches over 10% of the time, though he’s primarily leaning on his four-seamer. The strikeouts haven’t followed, as his 19% K-rate leaves room for growth. Still, for a young arm with limited college innings, the Cubs have to be encouraged by where Horton is developmentally.

Cam Smith, OF, Astros

Smith ranks seventh among rookies in plate appearances, despite inconsistent playing time. He reached base at a .388 clip in May, though much of that was BABIP-driven. The underlying tools are strong. Elite bat speed and an 8.5% barrel rate stand out, especially for someone who entered the year with just five games played above A-ball. Like with Kristian Campbell, the next step for Smith is to cut down on strikeouts and grounders to unlock the full potential of the profile.

Chase Meidroth, SS, White Sox

Meidroth has quietly impressed since joining the White Sox. Acquired from the Red Sox in the Garrett Crochet trade, he’s showing elite plate skills with low chase and whiff rates, plus solid range at shortstop. Like Jacob Wilson, the bat speed is lacking, but he’s consistently squaring up the baseball. Power will likely remain limited, but there’s sneaky value in fantasy baseball OBP formats, with speed and a potential runs-scored boost if the lineup ever improves.

Matt Shaw, 3B, Cubs

It’s hard to discuss Shaw’s first year in the majors without referencing his Triple-A reset. The before/after splits are stark:

Unlike Wilson and Meidroth, however, Shaw doesn’t stand out in the same way when it comes to contact ability. Still, his combination of patience, defense and baserunning make him a perfect fit for the 2025 Cubs.

Will Warren, RHP, Yankees

Warren remains a volatile option in the Yankees’ rotation. A recent seven-run outing at Dodger Stadium highlighted the inconsistency, but the raw stuff is there. While his sweeper, changeup and sinker get the most attention, Warren’s four-seamer leads his pitch mix in run value. The addition of a curveball has helped him take a step forward, and both his ERA estimators and stuff metrics suggest room for growth. He’s not a finished product, but the foundation is strong.

Drake Baldwin, C, Braves

Baldwin is the latest in a long line of promising Braves catchers. Following in the developmental path of William Contreras and Shea Langeliers while coming up alongside Sean Murphy, he is making a case to be the franchise’s long-term option behind the plate. The batted-ball metrics have been strong, and his strikeout rate held up well until a recent spike. Some inconsistency in power is likely, but if he stabilizes the K%, Baldwin has a chance to make a real impact in his debut season. He’s also impressed defensively.

Hyeseong Kim, 2B/SS/CF, Dodgers

Kim has been one of this season’s more intriguing rookies. He’s not playing every day, but the Dodgers are finding ways to get him at-bats across multiple positions. A near-.500 BABIP has inflated the early results, though his ability to square up the ball gives him some margin for regression. He’s also 6-for-6 on stolen base attempts. If an everyday role opens up, Kim could quickly become a fantasy factor.

Jasson Domínguez, OF, Yankees

It’s easy to forget how much hype surrounded The Martian back in 2020. Now 300 plate appearances into his MLB career, the tools remain evident, but the full breakout hasn’t arrived. He’s made some progress at the plate, notably lowering his groundball rate from last year, but offensive growth will take time. The bigger concern for now is playing time, as poor defensive metrics and a crowded Yankees outfield have clouded his path.

Marcelo Mayer, 3B, Red Sox

Mayer doesn’t have the volume yet, but he’s making his presence felt. He recently homered twice at Fenway and looks the part of a big league contributor, even if the numbers are still stabilizing and he isn’t getting at-bats against lefthanders. Mayer brought his strikeout rate under 20% in Double-A last year, but it’s back up to 27% through his first 50 MLB plate appearances. Like many young hitters, his development hinges on making contact while hitting the ball with authority. It’s a combo to track as Mayer’s summer unfolds.

Mason Montgomery, LHP, Rays

Montgomery’s stuff ranks among the best of any reliever this season. The results haven’t followed yet, with his ERA sitting north of 5.00, but the underlying pitch quality is exceptional. He’s working with a two-pitch mix, and his command of the slider has been inconsistent. This is still a relatively new role for Montgomery, who transitioned to the bullpen late last year. The raw skills point to future closer upside.

The post 15 MLB Rookies Having Standout Seasons So Far In 2025 appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.